Insights from HALL Structured Finance: Commercial and Multifamily Financing Forecast from the 2026 Mortgage Bankers Association Conference

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s recent Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention highlighted an important shift underway in commercial real estate: lending activity is expected to accelerate meaningfully in 2026, driven by improving origination volume, a large refinancing pipeline, and continued demand for multifamily and construction financing.

As a Dallas-based private lender focused on construction and multifamily lending, HALL Structured Finance views the conference as a strong indicator of where the CRE debt market is heading and how borrowers and lenders should prepare for the year ahead.

CRE Origination Volume is Expected to Rebound

One of the most significant data points shared at the conference was MBA’s forecast that total commercial and multifamily mortgage originations will increase 27% in 2026, reaching approximately $805 billion. Multifamily lending alone is projected to total nearly $400 billion.

For the CRE lending industry, this forecast reflects renewed momentum after a period of slowed transaction activity caused by interest rate volatility and tighter credit conditions. Increased origination volume suggests:

• Borrowers are re-engaging with new development and acquisition opportunities
• Deal flow is expected to rise across commercial and multifamily sectors
• Lenders will see stronger demand for construction and transitional financing

At HALL Structured Finance, we see this as an early sign that the lending environment is becoming more active, particularly in growth markets where housing demand remains strong.

Multifamily Remains a Central Driver of Lending Demand

The conference reinforced that multifamily continues to represent one of the most resilient and active segments in commercial real estate finance.

While challenges remain around affordability and supply, the projected lending volume underscores that multifamily will remain a primary focus for CRE lenders in 2026, supported by long-term demographic demand and ongoing development needs.

Refinancing Maturities Will Shape Lending Activity

In addition to new originations, MBA emphasized the scale of upcoming loan maturities. Approximately $875 billion in commercial mortgage balances are expected to mature in 2026.

This maturity pipeline will be a defining factor for CRE lending next year. Many borrowers will be approaching refinance events in an environment where:

• Rates remain higher than the prior cycle
• Valuations have adjusted in certain property types
• Traditional lenders are more selective on leverage and structure

As a result, refinancing activity is expected to generate meaningful lending demand, particularly for sponsors seeking flexible execution or non-bank solutions.

Private Lending Continues to Play a Growing Role

A recurring theme throughout the MBA conference was the evolving role of private lenders in today’s CRE finance landscape. Key players highlighted the need for the industry to adapt to regulatory and market change while supporting policies that sustain commercial real estate lending activity.

With banks constrained by capital requirements and construction exposure limits, private lenders have become increasingly important in providing financing for ground-up construction and multifamily projects. HALL Structured Finance believes this shift will continue to expand in 2026 as borrowers seek reliable lending partners with the ability to structure loans around real-world project needs.

The MBA conference made clear that 2026 is expected to be a more active year for commercial real estate lending. Increased origination volume, significant refinancing maturities, and sustained multifamily demand will all contribute to stronger borrowing activity and evolving lender participation.

We view these trends as a positive signal for construction and multifamily lending markets and remain focused on delivering flexible financing solutions that support sponsors as the CRE cycle gains momentum.