2026 CRE Lending Outlook: Moving Toward a More Grounded Market

Commercial real estate lenders are entering 2026 with more visibility than they have had in several years. After a cycle defined by interest rate volatility and shifting valuations, the market is beginning to settle in ways that allow lenders to reset expectations and plan with greater confidence. Deloitte highlights this shift in its 2025 Commercial Real Estate Outlook, which highlights that the industry may see “more clarity in the next 12 to 18 months.” 

 As stability returns, borrower activity is starting to follow. Many groups that paused acquisitions, development starts, or refinancing conversations during the most uncertain months are now reengaging, encouraged by a market that feels less reactive and more navigable. 

 The Maturity Wall Will Continue to Shape 2026 and Beyond 

 Despite these encouraging signs, lenders are still preparing for one of the most influential forces shaping the year ahead: the maturity wall. A maturity wall refers to a large volume of commercial real estate loans—many originating in a low-interest-rate environment—that are scheduled to mature within a concentrated time frame. Moss Adams notes in its Commercial Real Estate Debt Insights that more than $1 trillion in loans matured in 2025, meaning that beyond 2025, “extensions and modifications will impact loan maturity volume several years out.”  

 This reality underscores that the maturity wall is not a single-year event, but a multi-year dynamic that will continue to influence lending strategies, capital deployment, and risk assessment well beyond 2026. 

 Positioning for 2026 

As lenders shape their 2026 strategies, the themes are clear: be intentional, be selective, and lean into fundamentals. The market is not fully recovered, but it is more predictable—and lenders who recalibrate early will be positioned to deploy capital in ways that align with long-term performance. 

 At HALL Structured Finance, we remain committed to disciplined underwriting and dependable execution. If you’re preparing your capital strategy for the year ahead, our team is ready to support your next step.