CRE Lending Outlook 2026: What We’re Seeing Across Multifamily, Hotel, and Office at Mid-Year

Halfway through 2026, commercial real estate lending has shifted from cautious to active. Multifamily origination volume is climbing, hotel debt markets are attracting fresh capital, and office financing is stabilizing unevenly — strongest where sponsors bring quality assets and a clear business plan. Here’s what we’re seeing across all three sectors, and where we’re deploying capital next.

How much capital is moving through CRE lending in 2026?

According to the MBA’s 2026 CREF forecast, total commercial mortgage origination volume is projected to rise 27 percent to $805.5 billion in 2026. Much of that growth is being pushed by the maturity wall: MBA’s survey of loan maturity volumes found that 17 percent of the $5 trillion in outstanding commercial mortgages, or $875 billion, comes due this year. We’re seeing this directly in our own pipeline — sponsors with 2021 and 2022 vintage loans are moving early to refinance rather than waiting for their maturity date, having watched what happened to borrowers who waited too long in the last cycle.

What makes this year different from the last two isn’t just volume, it’s where that capital is willing to go. Banks remain selective, particularly on construction and transitional lending, which has left a meaningful gap for private, non-bank lenders who can underwrite complexity and hold a position through a business plan rather than only at stabilization. That’s the space we operate in, and it’s busier than it’s been in several years.

That refinancing wave, paired with steadier short-term rates, is the backdrop for everything below. Here’s how it’s playing out sector by sector:

• Multifamily: origination volume climbing as supply and demand rebalance
• Hospitality: debt markets strengthening behind improving RevPAR and rate growth
• Office: a national recovery story that looks different once you get to the submarket level

What’s driving multifamily lending trends mid-year?

According to CBRE’s Q1 2026 multifamily figures, net absorption of 78,100 units outpaced new construction completions for the first time in three quarters, and the national vacancy rate fell to 4.8 percent. Origination volume is following: the MBA’s 2026 CREF forecast projects multifamily lending will grow 21 percent to $399.2 billion in 2026, as the construction pipelines that swelled in 2021 and 2022 continue to thin out.

The story isn’t uniform. Sun Belt and Mountain West markets are still working through a supply overhang from the building boom of the past few years, while other metros are already tightening. That divergence matters for underwriting: we’re less interested in a market’s headline growth rate than in whether a specific submarket has absorbed its supply, and whether a sponsor’s rent and occupancy assumptions reflect where that submarket actually stands today rather than where it was two years ago.

We’re active in this shift. Recent multifamily closings for our team span Houston, Wisconsin and Colorado — markets where absorption is starting to outpace new supply and sponsors need a lender who can move at the speed of the deal. On loan sizes of $20 million to $200 million, we’re seeing the strongest demand for non-recourse bridge and permanent financing from owners buying into markets that are turning before the broader market catches on.

Where is hotel lending picking up?

Hotel performance improved in the first quarter, with RevPAR up 3.8 percent year-over-year on a 2.2 percent gain in average daily rate, according to CBRE’s Q1 2026 hotel figures. Debt markets are following that demand: JLL’s 2026 Global Hotel Investment Outlook points to strengthening lender appetite and improved pricing globally, with transactions above $250 million expected to increase significantly through the year.

What we’re watching most closely is where that performance is coming from. Rate-led growth, rather than pure occupancy gains, has been the dominant driver — which means underwriting needs to test how durable that pricing power really is at a given property, not just extrapolate a recent quarter forward. Assets with a genuine demand driver — group business, a renovated product, a market with constrained new supply — are the ones we’re comfortable leaning into.

Hospitality has always been a sector where speed and certainty of execution matter as much as pricing, and that hasn’t changed. Our recent closings — including the Ballad Hotel, MTN Scout and Compass by Margaritaville, along with hospitality deals in Clearwater, Myrtle Beach and Fort Lauderdale — reflect sponsors who needed a lender able to underwrite a seasonal, story-driven asset and close in 60 to 90 days, not six months.

What does office lending look like in DFW and beyond?

Nationally, office is stabilizing: vacancy fell to 18.6 percent in the first quarter, and total investment volume is expected to climb 20 percent for the year as lender appetite returns for high-quality assets, according to CBRE’s Q1 2026 U.S. office market report. Dallas-Fort Worth tells a more nuanced version of that story. Per CBRE’s Q1 2026 Dallas-Fort Worth office figures, overall vacancy actually rose 110 basis points year-over-year, but average direct asking rents climbed to $34.46 per square foot, up 5.3 percent — a sign that the flight to quality is real, and that well-located, well-amenitized buildings are pulling further away from the rest of the market.

That bifurcation is the whole story in office lending right now. A blended vacancy number tells you almost nothing about whether a specific building is financeable. What tells you more is tenant demand at the submarket level, the age and amenity set of the asset, and whether ownership has the capital and the plan to compete for the tenants who are still out there looking for space. We underwrite the building in front of us, not the market average.

This is exactly the environment our $500 million Texas office commitment was built for. Our Uptown Tower financing and the recent closing of 515 Walnut Tower are both bets on the same thesis: in a bifurcated market, capital should follow the asset, not the headline vacancy number. We look for well-located buildings with a credible leasing story, not just a low basis.

Where is capital flowing, and why?

Across all three sectors, the pattern is the same. Capital is chasing quality — the right submarket, the right sponsor, the right business plan — more than it’s chasing yield. Lenders who can underwrite complexity and close on a sponsor’s timeline are winning deals that a slower-moving bank or life company can’t touch. That’s the gap we’re built to fill: loan sizes from $20 million to $200 million, closings in 60 to 90 days from application and deposit remittance, and structures built around how a deal actually performs rather than a generic underwriting box.

None of this means underwriting standards are loosening. If anything, the opposite is true — with more capital in the market, sponsors have options, and the deals that get done fastest are the ones where the numbers, the market, and the plan all hold up under real scrutiny. We’d rather pass on a deal that doesn’t than force one to fit.

The maturity wall isn’t going away in 2026 or 2027, and neither is the division between quality assets and everything else. Sponsors who move early and who work with a lender that can move with them are the ones setting up their next few years well.

Considering a multifamily, hospitality, or office deal? Our team is actively deploying capital across all three sectors. Contact us to get started.